Macro · May 21, 2026
Late-cycle stagflationary drift is taking hold
Robust growth is colliding with sticky inflation and rising yields. That mix is changing market leadership and pressuring long-duration risk assets.
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Macro
What could push this amber regime into red
The current setup is still amber, but a few triggers would mark a sharper turn. The key watchpoints sit in yields, spreads, and bond volatility.
Macro · May 21, 2026
Bond volatility has become the live macro signal bucket
Macro · May 21, 2026
Fiscal dominance is showing up through the long end
Bond volatility, sticky inflation, and a higher 10-year yield are changing how capital prices risk. The long end is now doing the tightening.
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Macro · May 21, 2026
The AI trade still works, but only in the right semiconductor names
Semis remain in a structural uptrend, yet the next leg looks capex-selective. Balance sheets, backlog, and direct AI monetization matter most.
Read ReportMacro · May 21, 2026
The triggers that could break the semiconductor bounce
The current setup is only a bounce inside a larger deterioration. Bond volatility, long yields, and inflation are the main invalidation triggers to watch.
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